The medicine and the cure

So, I've single-handedly devised a plan to get us back to 1400 on the S&P. As we've seen from today's equity market action, the historical filing of a major, iconic American company with a healthy dose of government participation is worth a 20 point bonus on the SPX. Alright, so from 940, all we have to do is have Uncle Sam file 26 more similarly-statured companies and watch the fireworks from there. Our 401ks will be refilled in no time.

I thought this exchange on Zero Hedge was pretty post-worthy:

"If that move were to the downside we would have a congressional hearing by 11 AM on Monday to discuss emergency implementation of the uptick rule."

"It sounds like you may be too emotionally invested. Yes, of course there would be a Congressional investigation if the reverse had occurred. So what does it tell you that in a so-called representative republic, our elected leaders merely sit on their hands, secretly cheerleading the market action? The way to answer that question is to view the USA not as a citizen, but as a 3rd party evaluating another country. If that country's previous economic expansion was fueled not by innovation & production, but rather debt leverage & asset inflation, you might have stayed invested until you figured it was time to get out. Now, once you were out, would you re-enter the market if the country, rather than reform itself and embark on a new period of investment & productivity, had simply abrogated certain laws, including its very own Constitution? And in doing so, had allowed key political & industry insiders to manipulate critical economic features such as the currency & public debt all motivated by one thing: re-starting securitization ie the debt-leverage/asset-inflation cycle. What would this tell you about that country and its long-term prospects? I think the answer is obvious; play the game in the short-term, but look out for rivals. I think Jim Rogers is spot on - this place is toast and doesn't have much life left."

Things that are unstoppable

This commercial made me cringe every time it was on last season.

There's no need to dwell on why it's stupid, but there's no reason not to throw in a few corrections. Without further ado, things that really are unstoppable:

1) Our portfolio manager's neon orange polo shirts

2) Me, in the context of a plate of cheeseburgers

3) Grizzly bears that climb trees (that actually might be all of them).

4) Occam's Razor

5) Kids with crayons and sharpies

6) Bums pumped up on mad dog 20/20

7) This bad boy.

8) Donkey Kong

9) The US dollar's slide.

With a preface from Mr. Frost

"Most of the change we think we see in life is due to truths falling in and out of favor."

Irrational investors, I pose the following question to you: If you see a car headed straight towards a concrete wall at 110 mph, do you suddenly become much more optimistic and jump through the window into the car for the ride if you think the car is going to slow down to 100 mph before hitting the wall, or maybe the car isn't going to slow down but the driver is feeling better about surviving the oncoming crash?

I believe the answer is, only if you believe you can survive jumping out of the moving vehicle before impact.

"Hope. It is simultaenously your greatest strength and your greatest weakness."
-Architect, The Matrix

Quotes about money, oh so funny

"When I was young, I thought that money was the most important thing in the world. Now that I'm older and have been through life, I know that I was right."

-co-worker

"The easiest way to teach your children about money is to not have any."

-Elizabeth

The next one is not really about money, but maybe it's the stereotypical equivalent for girls?

"Whenever guys are rude to me, I tell them 'I'm sorry I'm not cute with big boobs.'"

- girl on the subway

And the last one, at least she's honest:

"I don't want one an ABC (American born chinese) husband. I can only date guys from the Motherland."

- girl at sushi bar

I am of the hearty opinion that you shouldn't date someone just because they're not cute and don't have big boobs. Please note there are no typos in the previous sentence.

As for the last girl, maybe she means Mother Russia?

The smell of napalm in the morning, an update

If you're a barbeque fan (and really who isn't, unless you've managed to contract vegetarianism) and you're in New York there's at least three places you should try:

1) Hill Country: Live music, long communal dining tables that would make a medieval warlord proud, and a Monday all you can eat menu that gets you unlimited pork ribs, bbq chicken, and brisket. The sides are excellent and all dishes pass the "quarter inch layer of grease coating the paper its wrapped in" test.

2) RUB (righteous urban bbq): The first time we tried to go here they were actually out of food. We spent 10 minutes wondering how a restaurant runs out of food before heading over to Hill Country. Anyway, when we came back the next time they did in fact have food, ribs are great, sausage is great, didn't get to try the burnt ends though, which is one of their specialties. Try the fried green tomatoes for an authentic southern blast. Even better than fried green pickles with horseradish.

3) Daisy May's: When I first saw the beef rib, I couldn't believe so many people could actually down the whole thing. Words to describe it are "supermassive" and, if you've tried it, "supermassively delicious." If you include sides with this meal you're definitely capable of swimming across the nearby hudson river, even if you don't know how to swim. Such is the power of cow and dairy.

I've heard Blue Smoke is really good as well, so that should be a future review.

Coincident Culture

There's one thing that pretty much everyone at my office obsesses over and it doesn't have anything to do with money, investing, or the rare appearance of cheetos in the snack basket. The one thing that everyone has in common but doesn't talk about is a fixation on fitness. You might say that's not surprising given that we spend 12+ hours sitting in front of computers each day, but it's a little more complicated than that.

The weird thing is that no one really works out together or talks about it. Everyone has managed, through some twisted path of fate, to become an athlete of some sort. There are triathletes, fighters, swimmers, marathon runners, (basket)ballers, bodybuilders, we're even getting a model as an intern this summer, you name it. Everyone does something and most people do a few things. Somehow everyone has arrived at the same conclusion.

New Yorkers are some of the most fit people in the country, maybe behind Seattle or some city like that where people bike to Canada and back for kicks, but in general at the top of their game especially considering how little space we have to run around in. It's definitely rubbing off on me, I've lost 35 lbs and 30 points of blood pressure in the last 3 months and I'm signed up for some serious sports action this summer. People in New York don't say, "I look and feel great", it's really just a state of being that everyone embraces.

See Star Trek even if you've never seen the TV show. Actually, especially if you've never seen the TV show. It's quite good.

Add to to-do list:
9) Go on a cruise at some point.

Save Yourself

Yesterday morning on the subway I ran into a new breed of New Yorker, the renegade punk rock preacher. Wearing a black and white "Trust Jesus" hoodie and sporting a duct-taped threadbare bible, he asked everyone on the subway to raise their hand if he or she was saved and then, to check out his website, primaryproofofthebible.com, which he had created over 5 years of intense labor in a Siberian prison camp (hey man, I'm giving you free advertising/street cred here).

He then pushed on with a fire and brimstone sermon that would have made even the most hardcore, right-wing leaning, bible-thumping, family-value espousing, Obama hating (hey that guy is getting on my nerves too), secretly sexually-deviant conservative shake in his boots. The general jist of his sermon was something like: If you don't throw your arms up and praise the lord, you're going to burn while Satan uses the flames coming off of you to roast marshmallows! Basic reward and punishment. So either God wants to treat you like a little kid, or, God is a capitalist after all, and is all about harnessing the power of self-interest. Unforunately, neither one of those ideas seemed especially appealing, judging from the dead stares he got from the other passengers. It's a good thing God is forgiving, or this salesman would've gotten a pink slip (and no taxpayer funded bailout) long before this recession even started.

Sunday fun-day

Title shamelessly stolen from those NFL commercials.

With my last to-do list waning to a close, and the weather warming up, I added a few things that I've had my eye on for the last couple of months:

1) Hudson Valley Hand Gliding - besides being a life long dream, the actual hand gliding itself is already paid for, all I need is the plane ticket.

2) Pick off a top of the market condo owner - hey i've been burned on momentum trades (actually by momentum traders) as well so I feel your pain. But it won't stop me from haggling like a Chinatown bootleg DVD salesman for a good deal.

3) See foo fighters live in concert.

4) Touch football. Anything that involves running or swimming. Preferably co-ed. Maybe even a sprint triathalon if I can find a good deal on a bike.

5) Do something nice for swine flu girl. The other night I met a girl with this intense negative aura, so much so that I thought that if swine flu could be a person, she would be that person. So it's kind of a harsh assessment but I'm thinking that on my bad days, I could come off like that as well. So you know what they say about good deed for the day or whatever. As long as she doesn't actually have swine flu, I think a good deed is in the cards.

6) Stop hating real estate brokers as much. Haha, just kidding. Same ole shady schnenigans from these guys.

7) I'm also all in on gas so I'll know whether 8) Sunday Funday update written from the Bahamas is going to happen within the next month.

Firestarter

About 3 weeks ago a friend texted me while I was at the gym post-work, saying very vaguely that there was something going on with work that I would want to know about right away. Caught off guard, I headed back to the office to see if anyone was there but it was deserted. A few minutes later I bailed on the office and met my friend on the streets below to find out what was going on.

The horse you rode in on

I've posted on risk-taking and probability a couple of times. There was actually a pretty heavy dose of chance in ending up with the job that I have right now (fits in well with Nassim Taleb's Black Swan theory). When I first noticed on my college's job search engine that the firm was recruiting with on-campus interviews, the schedule for interviews was already booked and after reading the description I promptly forgot about it. I happened to log back into the job search engine the day before the interviews were supposed to occur to check on something else totally unrelated and noticed that the very first interview slot at the overachieving rooster call crack of dawn had opened up, probably from someone having accepted another offer. I took the spot, got the job, and the rest is a pretty lengthy but for the most part awesome work in progress. Some journeys begin with a single small accident.

And that's where you come in

After talking with my friend, things moved quickly. A promotion, a massive resume builder for someone under 30 with only a couple of years of experience. The headline numbers were a major career booster.

It's easy to gamble when you've got nothing to lose. But the other time to gamble is when things are going your way. Grab the dice, throw them against the back wall, and hope you hit your number. It's when things are going your way that it's easiest to get stuck in the comfort zone. Bad things happen, like falling in love with your paycheck. Or your career takes over and defines your overall identity. And maybe you even stop growing.

You're fooling yourself if you think you can control or even understand everything, but overall it's pretty hard to underestimate your own ability to make something happen. The easiest way to pillage a comfort zone is to set yourself up for failure. I'm not just talking about your career, I'm talking about everything - relationships, your fitness, your happiness. And you should expect to fail, and often. Even more strongly, you should expect to overcome those failures. Learn everything you can, try everything you can, and don't apologize to yourself for mistakes. When it comes to people, paradigm shifts are gradual. In the end you'll be able to look back and see it as leveraging success into newer and better things.

Make yourself

You should make amends with you
If only for better health
But if you really want to live, Why not try, and Make yourself?